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CLIMATE CHANGE ALBERTAS BIODIVERSITY 41Priority Areas for Conservation of Rare Species Ecological niche models identifying areas of high current and future diversity of rare Alberta plant and butterfly species indicate that the Foothills Natural Region will be increasingly important for plant and butterfly diversity as climate change progresses. Using ecological niche modeling page 12 Jessica Stolar and Scott Nielsen in review examined the current and future distribution of Albertas rare NatureServe ranks S1 S3 36 vascular plant and butterfly species 37 and determined the locations of current and potential future conservation gaps in Albertas protected areas. Vascular plants and butter- flies are two groups of species with relatively rich Alberta location datasets that support modeling of rare species. Rarevascularplantspeciesarecurrently concentratedintheRockyMountainand FoothillsNaturalRegionsandintheCypress HillstheFoothillswilllikelybecomean increasinglyimportantregionforrareplant diversitybythe2080sFig.9.AlthoughAlbertas protectedareanetworkoverlapssignificantly withcurrentandfuturehotspotsofrareplant speciesrichnessgapsstillremain.Depending uponthetimeperiodandthetargetsetforspecies protectiongapsinthecurrentprotectedareas networkwereobservedfor16-43oftherare speciesconsidered. Current 1961-1990 2071-2100 36 S-rankings by NatureServe reflect the conservation status of a species in the province. They range from S1 critically imperilled to S5 demonstrably secure. For more information httpexplorer.natureserve.orgranking.htm 37 Maps for many species available in the rare plant map gallery at www.biodiversityandclimate.abmi.caresourcesmap-galleries RARE VASCULAR PLANT RICHNESS 20-45 45-70 70-95 95-120 120-145 145-170 Parks and Protected Areas 0 75 150 Km N 300 FIGURE 9. Currentandprojected futurerareplantrichnessin Alberta.Speciesrichnessis projectedtoincreaseinthe FoothillsNaturalRegionin particularbytheendofthe century.Thisfutureprojec- tionisbasedonasuiteof273 rarespeciesanensembleof 15globalclimatemodels and the A2 emissions scenario.Areasofnon-habi- tatincludingrockwater andagricultureinwhite wereomittedStolarand Nielseninreview.