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20 CLIMATE CHANGE ALBERTAS BIODIVERSITY Plant Species Diversity Asforbirdsthereisawealthofgeographically- referencedobservationsofAlbertaplantsthat canbeusedtounderstandfuturedistributions ofthesespeciesunderachangingclimate. Future projections of the ranges of over 1500 Alberta plants indicate changes in provincial plant diversity including increases in the number of species present and their genetic diversity for many areas but decreases in the Rocky Mountains. As individual species shift their distributions in response to changing climatic conditions there will be consequences for different aspects of biodiversity not just species diversity but also phylogenetic diversity or the degree of evolutionary relatedness among those species. Understanding the potential changes in these measures of diversity in response to climate change provides a more complete picture of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the province. If related groups of species are affected by climate change in a similar way there could be a disproportionate loss in phylogenetic diversity representing a greater overall loss in the evolutionary history of Albertas plant species. 20 Maps for many species are available in the rare plant map gallery at www.biodiversityandclimate.abmi.caresourcesmap-galleries 21 Learn more about this research by watching a presentation by Dr. Scott Nielsen at www.biodiversityandclimate.abmi.cavideos Identifying potential changes in these patterns can inform land use planning and conservation priorities by highlighting differential threats within the province. For example it might be beneficial to identify areas of high species richness and high phylogenetic diversity in current and future time periods to prioritize conservation actions. JianZhangandcolleaguesinreviewdeveloped ecologicalnichemodelsfor1541Albertaplant speciesalmost90ofthespeciesfoundinthe province.Ofthesenearlyonequarterwere projectedtolose80oftheircurrentprovincial distributionofsuitablehabitatwhileathird wereprojectedtomorethandoubletheirsuitable habitat.20 Fornearlyhalfofthespeciesexamined suitableclimatespacewasprojectedtoshift northwardbyatleast10kmdecade. As a result of these projected shifts in species distributions both plant species richness and phylogenetic diversity were expected to increase for most regions by the end of the century Fig. 5. In the Rocky Mountains which have the highest phylogenetic diversity of plant species in the province today overall declines in diversity were projected.21